Derivation and validation of a clinical risk score to predict death among patients awaiting cardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Surgical delay may result in unintended harm to patients needing cardiac surgery, who are at risk for death if their condition is left untreated. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a clinical risk score to predict death among patients awaiting major cardiac surgery. METHODS: We used the CorHealth Ontario Registry and linked ICES health administrative databases with information on all Ontario residents to identify patients aged 18 years or more who were referred for isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valvular procedures, combined CABG-valvular procedures or thoracic aorta procedures between Oct. 1, 2008, and Sept. 30, 2019. We used a hybrid modelling approach with the random forest method for initial variable selection, followed by backward stepwise logistic regression modelling for clinical interpretability and parsimony. We internally validated the logistic regression model, termed the CardiOttawa Waitlist Mortality Score, using 200 bootstraps. RESULTS: Of the 112 266 patients referred for cardiac surgery, 269 (0.2%) died while awaiting surgery (118/72 366 [0.2%] isolated CABG, 81/24 461 [0.3%] valvular procedures, 63/12 046 [0.5%] combined CABG-valvular procedures and 7/3393 [0.2%] thoracic aorta procedures). Age, sex, surgery type, left main stenosis, Canadian Cardiovascular Society classification, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, dialysis, psychosis and operative priority were predictors of waitlist mortality. The model discriminated (C-statistic 0.76 [optimism-corrected 0.73]). It calibrated well in the overall cohort (Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.2) and across surgery types. INTERPRETATION: The CardiOttawa Waitlist Mortality Score is a simple clinical risk model that predicts the likelihood of death while awaiting cardiac surgery. It has the potential to provide data-driven decision support for managing access to cardiac care and preserve system capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the recovery period and beyond.

Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Model to Predict Intensive Care Unit Length of Stay After Cardiac Surgery.

Background Across the globe, elective surgeries have been postponed to limit infectious exposure and preserve hospital capacity for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the ramp down in cardiac surgery volumes may result in unintended harm to patients who are at high risk of mortality if their conditions are left untreated. To help optimize triage decisions, we derived and ambispectively validated a clinical score to predict intensive care unit length of stay after cardiac surgery. Methods and Results Following ethics approval, we derived and performed multicenter valida tion of clinical models to predict the likelihood of short (≤2 days) and prolonged intensive care unit length of stay (≥7 days) in patients aged ≥18 years, who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and/or aortic, mitral, and tricuspid value surgery in Ontario, Canada. Multivariable logistic regression with backward variable selection was used, along with clinical judgment, in the modeling process. For the model that predicted short intensive care unit stay, the c-statistic was 0.78 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. For the model that predicted prolonged stay, c-statistic was 0.85 in the derivation and 0.78 in the validation cohort. The models, together termed the CardiOttawa LOS Score, demonstrated a high degree of accuracy during prospective testing. Conclusions Clinical judgment alone has been shown to be inaccurate in predicting postoperative intensive care unit length of stay. The CardiOttawa LOS Score performed well in prospective validation and will complement the clinician's gestalt in making more efficient resource allocation during the COVID-19 period and beyond.

Long COVID-19: A Primer for Cardiovascular Health Professionals, on Behalf of the CCS Rapid Response Team.

It is now widely recognized that COVID-19 illness can be associated with significant intermediate and potentially longer-term physical limitations. The term, "long COVID-19" is used to define any patient with persistent symptoms after acute COVID-19 infection (ie, after 4 weeks). It is postulated that cardiac injury might be linked to symptoms that persist after resolution of acute infection, as part of this syndrome. The Canadian Cardiovascular Society Rapid Response Team has generated this document to provide guidance to health care providers on the optimal management of patients with suspected cardiac complications of long COVID-19.

Cardiovascular Care Delivery During the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Canada.

Hospitals and ambulatory facilities significantly reduced cardiac care delivery in response to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The deferral of elective cardiovascular procedures led to a marked reduction in health care delivery with a significant impact on optimal cardiovascular care. International and Canadian data have reported dramatically increased wait times for diagnostic tests and cardiovascular procedures, as well as associated increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In the wake of the demonstrated ability to rapidly create critical care and hospital ward capacity, we advocate a different approach during the second and possible subsequent COVID-19 pandemic waves. We suggest an approach, informed by local data and experience, that balances the need for an expected rise in demand for health care resources to ensure appropriate COVID-19 surge capacity with continued delivery of essential cardiovascular care. Incorporating cardiovascular care leaders into pandemic planning and operations will help health care systems minimise cardiac care delivery disruptions while maintaining critical care and hospital ward surge capacity and continuing measures to reduce transmission risk in health care settings. Specific recommendations targeting the main pillars of cardiovascular care are presented: ambulatory, inpatient, procedural, diagnostic, surgical, and rehabilitation.

Guiding Cardiac Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: How Ethics Shapes Our Health System Response.

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised ethical questions for the cardiovascular leader and practitioner. Attention has been redirected from a system that focuses on individual patient benefit toward one that focuses on protecting society as a whole. Challenging resource allocation questions highlight the need for a clearly articulated ethics framework that integrates principled decision making into how different cardiovascular care services are prioritized. A practical application of the principles of harm minimisation, fairness, proportionality, respect, reciprocity, flexibility, and procedural justice is provided, and a model for prioritisation of the restoration of cardiovascular services is outlined. The prioritisation model may be used to determine how and when cardiovascular services should be continued or restored. There should be a focus on an iterative and responsive approach to broader health care system needs, such as other disease groups and local outbreaks.

Cardiac Rehabilitation During the COVID-19 Era: Guidance on Implementing Virtual Care.

Cardiac rehabilitation programs across Canada have suspended in-person services as a result of large-scale physical distancing recommendations designed to flatten the COVID-19 pandemic curve. Virtual cardiac rehabilitation (VCR) offers an alternate mechanism of care delivery, capable of providing similar patient outcomes and safety profiles compared with centre-based programs. To minimize care gaps, all centres should consider developing and implementing a VCR program. The process of this rapid implementation, however, can be daunting. Centres should initially focus on the collation, utilization, and repurposing of existing resources, equipment, and technology. Once established, programs should then focus on ensuring that quality indicators are met and care processes are protocolized. This should be followed by the development of sustainable VCR solutions to account for care gaps that existed before COVID-19, and to improve cardiac rehabilitation delivery, moving forward. This article reviews the potential challenges and obstacles of this process and aims to provide pragmatic guidance to aid clinicians and administrators during this challenging time.

Post-Discharge Cardiac Care in the Era of Coronavirus 2019: How Should We Prepare?

The novel coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed intense pressure on health care organizations around the world. Among other concerns, there has been an increasing recognition of common and deleterious cardiovascular effects of COVID-19 based on preliminary studies. Furthermore, patients with preexisting cardiac disease are likely to experience a more severe disease course with COVID-19. As case numbers continue to increase exponentially, a surge in the number of patients with new or comorbid cardiovascular disease will translate into more frequent and, in some cases, prolonged rehabilitation needs after acute hospitalization. This report describes the current status of post-discharge cardiac care in Canada and provides suggestions regarding steps that policymakers and health care organizations can take to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic.